Geopolitical Developments of the Resistance Axis from the Perspective of Neoclassical Realism 2015-2025

The geopolitical developments in the West Asian region between 2015 and 2025, especially in the last three years, have brought serious changes to the structure, function, and strategic logic of the “Resistance Axis.” Using the theory of neoclassical realism and the framework of networked deterrence, this research seeks to explain how regional security and political changes, especially after the widespread conflicts between the Resistance Axis and the Israeli regime from 2023 onwards, have affected the type of deterrence and strategic power of this axis. The main question of the article is: What effect have geopolitical developments had on the balance of power and the deterrence model of the Resistance Axis in confronting the Israeli regime? The research hypothesis is based on the fact that the combination of states and non-state actors in the axis of resistance, under the influence of internal and external pressures, weakening strategic coherence, and changes in the patterns of confrontation with the Israeli regime, has moved towards decentralized and multi-layered deterrence based on dispersed security and operational networks. This research was conducted using a qualitative method and using documentary analysis, and its data were collected from reliable scientific sources in Persian, Arabic, and English. The findings show that the axis of resistance in the last decade, especially after 2023, has resorted to strategies of a dispersed, informal, and local nature instead of centralized military-political coherence due to precise information attacks, the weakness of allied states,